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Monday 17 September 2018

Proto-Stonehenge, Waun Mawn and the burden of proof



Further to my previous post, rumour has it that the dig is now complete, and that the diggers will be filling in, tidying up, and moving on within the next couple of days. The Pembrokeshire Historical Society members visited the site of Sunday for a guided tour;  maybe other groups have also visited.  This week MPP will be giving his latest talk three times in the local area.

https://brian-mountainman.blogspot.com/2018/09/waun-mawn-unfinished-business.html 

Since it was announced even before the 2018 dig commenced, and since Waun Mawn has been widely flagged up as Proto-Stonehenge on the basis of no evidence and much speculation, it's worth reminding ourselves what a task MPP and his team have on their hands.   We are not just dealing with Occam's Razor here, but with Hitchens's Razor too.

Wikipedia:
"Hitchens's razor is an epistemological razor asserting that the burden of proof regarding the truthfulness of a claim lies with the one who makes the claim; if this burden is not met, the claim is unfounded and its opponents need not argue further in order to dismiss it. It is named, echoing Occam's razor, for the journalist and writer Christopher Hitchens, who, in a 2003 Slate article, formulated it thus: "What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence."

And as Carl Sagan said: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence":
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Extraordinary_claims_require_extraordinary_evidence

See these posts:

https://brian-mountainman.blogspot.com/2017/05/hitchenss-razor-and-century-of.html  
https://brian-mountainman.blogspot.com/2017/08/bluestone-transport-how-archaeologists.html
https://brian-mountainman.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-artificial-significance-of-waun-mawn.html

I don't want to go over all that again, but let's remind ourselves of a quite extraordinary claim: namely that the stones used in the  bluestone settings at Stonehenge were brought, lock, stock and barrel, from an older (Neolithic) stone setting at Waun Mawn, in the form of a giant venerated stone circle which used stones quarried from Rhosyfelin (foliated rhyolite), Carn Goedog (spotted dolerite), Cerrigmarchogion (dolerite) and Pontyglasier (Palaeozoic sandstone).  In the light of what has already been claimed in print by MPP and his team, the burden of proof rests squarely on their shoulders, and they will look extremely foolish if this all proves to have been a classic wild goose chase.

This is what they now have to do:

1.  Prove that around 80 bluestone monoliths were arranged in a giant circle here, and that they were later taken away in a concerted fashion over a short period of time.

2. Prove that the putative stone circle was Neolithic, not Bronze age.

3.  Prove that the stones were all placed here around 5,600 yrs BP and all taken away around 5,000 yrs BP.

4.  Prove that the stone circle was not made of dolerite and meta-mudstone monoliths picked up in the neighbourhood, but of spotted dolerite monoliths from Carn Goedog, foliated rhyolite from Rhosyfelin, sandstones from the Afon Nyfer headwaters near Pontglasier, and unspotted dolerite from Cerrigmarchogion.

5.  Prove that any "sockets" discovered really did hold monoliths, and that they are not simply extraction pits marking places from which stones have been collected for use elsewhere on Waun Mawn.  They must also prove that they are not simply natural hollows in the surface of the broken bedrock / till layer that lies beneath the thin surface peat and soil layer.

6.  Prove that any so-called traces of human activity on this site really do relate to settlement and "engineering work" and are not simply natural phenomena related to glacial and periglacial processes.

7.  Prove via control digs that any features exposed during this dig really are exceptional and significant, and that they are not just typical of what occurs beneath the peat across a wide swathe of countryside.

That is a pretty onerous set of requirements, but you make your bed, and you lie in it.  We can be quite sure that there will be meticulous surveying and recording of data, enthusiastic collection of organic materials for C14 dating and species identifications, collection of rock samples for the "pet rock boys" to look at, and much overflying and photography from Adam Stanford's drone.  The word is that the dig has been huge, spreading across more than a thousand square metres of moorland.

As Hitchens reminds us, there is no obligation on any of us to believe a single word that these diggers utter in support of their extravagant hypothesis, and certainly no obligation for us to believe what people say simply because they are "experts" or senior academics.

So we await their evidence, with interest.........

9 comments:

TonyH said...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating [Origin 14th Century].


Given this, perhaps the archaeologists need to do some serious chewing of the cud.


Next, it may be a case of "back to the drawing board", preceded an abandonment of their old, fondly loved, Ruling Hypothesis.

Glaciers may become cuddly, fluffy, understandable, a bit like Neanderthals.

You never know.....

Steve Hooker said...

Does the above contain the Altar Stone? To me, this is the killer. The odd man out that proves a prototype Stonehenge is nonsense.

Or, are they sticking to the convoluted 'unification of tribes' theory. The Brecon gang saw the fun the Preseli gang were having dragging stones, they joined in, but brought one, much bigger stone and gave up after that. Meanwhile, the Hereford and saw all the fuss and decided they didn't want to join the party.

It's all going to end in tears.

BRIAN JOHN said...

I am gobsmacked -- suddenly, 694 people have looked at this post. That's a ten-fold increase since yesterday, and one of the biggest "page view" figures I have seen on this blog. Somebody must be taking it seriously........ quite right too. I imagine that some other sites must have shared it or published a link.

BRIAN JOHN said...

Page views of this article are now well over 1,000. I'm still trying to work out why that is. Maybe the inclusion of the word "Stonehenge" in the title is enough to make things go viral -- and a proportion of the page views, according to Google Analytics, have come via search engines. Most hits are from the UK, with the USA next on the list. But the majority of hits have come from Facebook links -- this means that there must have been many Facebook shares and referrals with people passing on the page URL to friends and colleagues. Interesting....... anyway, if awareness of the issues is raised, that's as it should be.

Alex Gee said...

To my mind the main accusation the quarryists and their supporters, the society of Antiquaries of London, various funding bodies and the Archaeological establishment, now face is not one of "Wild Goose Chase" but of scientific and intellectual fraud plus an additional charge of uneccessary environmental vandalism. "Oh what a tangled web we weave when we set out to deceive"!!

Alex Gee said...

On the Mendip Hills there are numerous small sockets/ stone pits used to extract stone for wall/enclosure building! There are also numerous small stone cairns, the remains of stone clearance from paddocks and pasture. All are merely a record of the activities of farmers from the Neolithic to the present day!

Alex Gee said...

Perhaps the Auroch dung is about to hit the rotating whirly wind magic thing?

Steve Hooker said...

I added you to my Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/buystonehenge/
One 'like' and 29 views. Don't know how many click-throughs, I suspect not many, as I only have 92 followers.

There was one other linking to your article: Open Access to Stonehenge with 3,395 members though again not many of them will have 'seen' this posting.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/hengeoats/permalink/1367574336708386/

But, people share the above public posts privately within their own feeds and unless you are 'friends' you'd never know. Or, they make their own links to you...

Steve Hooker said...

Oops. And another 11 shares to this and another single share (so far) to the newer 'dead and buried' article.
https://www.facebook.com/search/links/?q=proto-stonehenge